By Ed Thompson
“If we do nothing different, by 2040, all of our current churches sized 100 members and less will be gone.” There’s a PowerPoint slide that will get your attention. The quote comes from Dr. Bill Drummond and was included in the workshop “Designing for the New Norm,” led by Jim Kitchens and Deborah Wright at the Association of Mid Council Leaders/Association of Stated Clerks Winter Workshop Gathering.
The footnote to that slide was even more troubling. “*Post covid estimates that to 2030.” I think the word is “estimates.” It might be “extends.” To be honest, I can’t read my own writing. I was probably still in shock.
Although I’m sure they told us, I have no idea who Dr. Bill Drummond is. Maybe he’s a quack. Maybe he just wants to grab attention. Certainly, he got my attention. If he’s right, we’ll have 18 churches left in this presbytery by 2040. Or maybe by 2030. That’s 8 years from now or perhaps 18. That’s not that much time. I have t-shirts older than that. To be honest, I probably have t-shirts more than 18 years old.
The caveat, of course, is the first part of that phrase – “if we do nothing different.” So the question becomes “What do we need to be doing differently?”
I think part of the answer comes from Jenelle Holmes, the speaker at Saturday’s Presbytery meeting. Listen to your neighbors. That also includes doing a neighborhood exegesis. Listening to her was one of the few times I have wished that I was still serving as a pastor of a church. I would love to do that. I think she’s on to something.
Jenelle serves as the pastor of the Ormewood Church, a new church development in the Presbytery of Greater Atlanta. The church started in the building that formerly housed the Ormewood Park Presbyterian Church. They closed when they got down to 15 members. (A metric that would cover 35 churches in our presbytery.) Greater Atlanta Presbytery thought there was still opportunity for ministry in that neighborhood, though, so they set up a listening session with local residents to listen to their concerns.
It turns out that the local residents didn’t know and didn’t feel connected to the church members or pastor. Those folks would drive in for worship and then leave. That’s a reality that probably describes too many of our churches. Members may have grown up in the neighborhood where their church is located, but they don’t live there anymore. If the church can’t afford a full-time pastor, it’s likely that the pastor doesn’t live in the neighborhood either and just drives in for worship and maybe for a meeting during the week.
The disconnect doesn’t happen overnight. No one is acting out of malice or with bad intentions, but little by little, the church becomes separated from and strangers to the people who live in that neighborhood. Sporadic outreach events may or may not draw a crowd. But if they are sporadic, if they reflect what “outsiders” think the local residents will like or need instead of what the local community would identify as their needs, the response will probably be tepid and short-lived at best. And, if people don’t know the church members or the pastor, they may be suspicious of our motives. At this point in time, Christians and churches don’t necessarily have the best reputation.
Listening to our neighbors would certainly seem to fit the Great Commission. “Go into all the world and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit, and teaching them to obey all that I have commanded you.” The world starts with our local neighborhood. While the parable of the Good Samaritan teaches us that our neighbor is anyone in need, our neighbors also includes the people who live nearby. Or in the case of the church, the people who live near our building.
We have the chance to do something differently. That prediction is not necessarily a death sentence. Hopefully, it will be a wake-up call. I doubt that Dr. Bill Drummond has a crystal ball. Even if he’s only half right, we’d end up closing more than 50 churches in the next 8 to 18 years. That’s not far from what’s been happening since the presbytery was first organized in 1987. Covid, of course, is a wild card. My gut sense is that the pandemic will only accelerate the trends we’re already seeing.
Every church, not just those with 100 or less members, needs to be thinking about what they need to be doing differently. You may also want to be thinking about what your church’s legacy is going to be. How do you want to be remembered? What would you want local residents to think about you when you’re gone? Will they notice any difference if you close? Will they even care?
I suspect some churches will close because they run out of money. I suspect others will close because the building becomes an issue. Maybe they’ll need to repair the roof, replace the furnace. Maybe there will be cracks in the foundation. It’s easy to keep putting off the necessary maintenance until it becomes too much to deal with. I suspect, though, that more churches will close because they will run out of energy before they run out of money. How would you want to have the money that’s left after the church closes to be used? The presbytery would be glad to take it, and we will put it to good use to support the churches that are still around. I would much rather you invest the money in your community or in some cause, one of our seminaries, Bluestone, or Davis & Elkins College perhaps.
If you’re not going to think or do anything differently, I hope that you will at least think about your legacy and what will be the tipping point when you’ll need to close your doors.
I hope Dr. Bill Drummond isn’t right. I’m afraid he’s going to be closer to the truth than any of us are willing to admit.